I hope you are having a good Labor Day and are enjoying the early taste of fall.   The lengthening shadows tell us that summer is slowly winding down.  Soon the storms of our fall severe weather season will arrive as winter tries to sneak in and summer doesn’t want to cooperate and move out of the way.

Now is time to ask yourself a simple question.  How prepared are you – I mean really?

You see we humans are reactive creatures.  Once something happens and it’s over and done with THEN we train and plan for the situation that just occurred.  We ready at that point.  “Were ready,” we tell ourselves, and then we turn our attention to other things and then in a shorter amount of time than we think, our preparations and training fade into nothing more than a comforting myth.

The aftermath of 9-11 is a good example.

The attacks of September 11, with the vision of falling buildings, death & destruction and the assurances from our enemies that more death and destruction was on the way, made the possibility of an actual war on the “home front” more than a just little realistic.

Many, many people began emergency preparedness activities.  CERT classes were filled, people followed FEMA guidelines stockpiling the recommended items  – you remember those items don’t you?    Duct tape & plastic sheeting for sealing windows and vents, a three-day supply of food and water, extra meds, etc.

Then as time passed and no further attacks succeeded in being carried out we began to feel secure once again and our interest in preparedness quickly vanished.  Comedians even joke about the preparations, as if people were just overreacting to yet another Y2K scare.

Yet the threat is still there.  There are folk who still consider us vermin to be rid of & at least hurt badly in some way or any way possible & trying very hard to find a way to do so.  Not to forget the various homegrown folk who don’t like you because “you aint one of us”, whoever that particular “us” may be.

Truth is we’re are just as vulnerable now, if not more so than we were back then, because we once again have a false sense of security.  Yet the dangers are still there and the recommended preparations are just as valid today as they were in 2001.

With weather preparedness it’s the same way.  It takes a killer tornado to fill stormspotter classes.  Then time passes; memories fade & then interest fades. That is until the next F5 comes ripping through & the cycle repeats itself once again.

I know this sounds depressing, but it is a needed reality check.

So let’s get prepared again.

The time to prepare is now.  Study, prepare and refresh your training on a regular basis.  That’s the only way to stay ahead of the game.

When is the last time you’ve been to a storm spotter class?  Have you ever been to a class?

Well, there’s no better time than now.

Below is the current schedule for the NWS classes, given by WCM John De Block.

If you don’t see your county listed, don’t fret too much; just go to the class nearest you.  I live in Jefferson County; I’ve been to classes in Jefferson, Shelby, Bibb & Tuscaloosa Counties and an unrelated weather seminar in Montgomery.  Have weather, will travel.

The training material is available online, but, I strongly recommend you attend the classes.  Books are good.  I eat them up, but nothing beats the “live performance”.  Especially that bikini section that Mr. De Block has slipped in the wall cloud slides that aren’t given in the book.

But, for reference, here they are:

Basic Stormspotter Guide PDF – http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures/basicspot.pdf

Basic Stormspotter Presentation PDF- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/bmx/outreach/skywarn/WebBasicSpotter2009.pdf

Graduate Strom Presentation PDF – http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/bmx/outreach/skywarn/GraduateSpotterPresentation.pdf

Advanced Stormspotter Guide PDF – http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fwd/pdf/broch_adv_spotter.pdf

Here, have a catalog of downloadable NWS products:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=skywarn

Now, what about preparedness in general, or should I say “multi-hazard preparedness”?

After all, weather is only one hazard that might greet you.  Lets add chemical spills (I live 1 block from an interstate filled with tankers and nutty drivers). Industrial accidents that affect a whole community.  “Honey why is there kerosene coming out of the faucet?”  The Boom!  “What was that?” scenarios.  Or, in my case, trees coming on top of your house at 5AM trying to smush you.

To expand your readiness I would recommend the following FEMA publications:

IS-22  Are You Ready? An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness http://www.fema.gov/pdf/areyouready/areyouready_full.pdf

IS-317 Introduction to Community Emergency Response Teams

http://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/downloads/training/CERT%20PMPDF.zip

and Appendix http://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/downloads/training/CERTPMAppendix1-APDF.zip

You can take the CERT course at http://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/training_mat.shtm#IS317

However, if you actually intend to be a CERT responder you SHOULD & MUST attend a CERT class to be certified and to lessen the likelihood of getting yourself killed in the field.

The ARES ARECC books and courses are goldmines of information. Order all three books, read them and read them again.  When a local course is offered, take it.  http://www.arrl.org/courses-training or

http://www.arrl-al.org/ARES_training.html

Now for the die-hard survivalist or those just plain interested, here are the old Civil Defense Manuals from the “Good Old Days”:

In time of EMERGENCY a citizen’s handbook on … Nuclear Attack … Natural Disasters

http://www.sew-lexicon.com/Civil%20Defense%20Hbk%20H-14/H-14_index.htm

Personal And Family Survival

http://www.sew-lexicon.com/Civil%20Defense%20Manual/SM3-11_index.htm

All this light reading ought to make your days bright and cheery.

This of course brings me to my disclaimer.

I am advocating that you remain aware of the dangers that are out there, do be prepared & do stay fresh in your training.

I’m not advocating that you become a some sort of a nut wearing aluminum foil hats, constantly checking your 2012 Doomsday Clock, or waiting for a comet to fall on your lumpy head.  Nor should you become a “Gloomy Gus”, always looking for the Dark Side of Life, fully expecting for the “Luck O’ The Irish to befall” & almost irritated when it doesn’t arrive.

I bet each one of you suddenly had a mental image of someone I just described, didn’t you?

Let’s make reasonable, well thought out preparations & then let’s go live and have some fun.

Viva La Vida.

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Mark’s Almanac

September is the ninth month of the year and the seventh month on the Roman calendar, which is where the month gets its name.

Temperatures are still hot at the beginning of the month, but, by months end, fall will definitely be felt.

Noticeable in September will be the thickening of the cat’s fur, as she begins growing her winter coat & the drift of Yellow Giant Sulphur Butterflies as they migrate towards Florida.

Weather starts shifting from the summer to autumn pattern and back again. Storms resemble the August pattern, but the Bermuda High will starts shifting southward and begin weakening, which will weaken the blocking effect it has had which prevented fronts from invading from the northwest.

September is the peak of the hurricane season, the actual peak being on September 10.  This peak coincides with the time of “syzygy”, when the combination of the sun and moon’s gravity and autumnal equinox combine to provide the highest astronomical tides of the year.  Add a hurricane’s storm surge on top of this and you can have incredibly destructive flooding.

Fall begins at Autumnal Equinox on September 23, 2010 at 10:09 P.M. CDT, when the Sun crosses directly over equator and night and day is approximately the same length.

One term that occasionally pops up is “equinoctial storms”.  Which are severe storms in North America and the UK that supposedly accompany the vernal and autumnal equinoxes.  Where this belief originated is obscure.  Some say perhaps from the 1700’s when sailors were greeted by West Indies hurricanes, or due to the coincidence of the first fall severe storms sometimes coming in the latter half of September.  At any rate, statistics show no evidence to support the belief.

On this date, if there is sufficient solar activity, and you are away from city lights, the aurora may possibly be seen, as the Equinox dates are the two most favored times of the year for auroral sightings.

September’s Full Moon is “Harvest Moon” in Native American folklore.  So called because the moon is larger and seems to rise at almost the same time every night, which allowed harvesting to continue on into the night.

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The 2010 Simulated Emergency Test will be held on October 2.  ALERT is planning to be active during the event.  We will need volunteers for K4NWS.  More details will be given at our next meeting.

This month’s regular meeting will be on September 14 at 7PM at the National Weather Service

forecast office at the Shelby County Airport, with a Board of Directors meeting following.

I hope to see you there

Mark

WD4NYL

PRESIDENT

I hope all is going well with you and yours & that you aren’t melting in this August heat.

These are some of the most dangerous days of the year, simply due to the heat.   About 237 Americans die each due to heat related illnesses.  Our bodies cooling mechanisms –

internal blood circulation adjustments, sweating and evaporation are defeated by the high humidity.   Though you are rapidly losing your bodies water stores, the sweat cannot evaporate fast enough to dissipate the heat in the high humidity.

To help identify the danger zone, and express how the combined temperature and humidity “feels” or effects the human body the Heat Index was developed.

Heat Index can be calculated using the simple algorithm (I have wondered what ever happened to the old word “formula”):

HI = -42.379 + 2.04901523T + 10.14333127R – 0.22475541TR – 6.83783×10 ^-3 T ²
- 5.481717×10 ^-2 R ² + 1.22874×10 ^-3 T ²R + 8.5282×10 ^-4 TR ² – 1.99×10 ^-6 T ² R ²

Simple, no?

Or cheat and use this chart.

I picked this version because it uses the Dewpoint.  Some charts use Relative Humidity, which is fine, except the humidity is constantly varying with temperature fluctuations, while the Dewpoint usually remains fairly steady.

You will notice that if you are in full sunlight the HI can be up to 15 degrees higher than indicated.

If you have pets another thing to consider is that “official” temperature readings are taken 6 feet above ground level.  It’s much hotter on the ground where Fido & Puss have to walk.

I once conducted an experiment by placing thermometers at different places on the ground to see what the critters & their footpads were having to endure.  Some places, particularly the sidewalks and pavement the temperature easily reached 150 degrees.

So, if you think, as was advocated on a recent local news program, that you are doing Old Shep a favor by taking him for a walk during heat such as this to keep him from being bored and flabby, I would suggest that you go barefoot with him.  He can’t tell you what he is suffering, but I bet by your hopping, jumping and cussing that you will be able to convey the message clearly – “Cuss IT’S HOT!!!”

To help combat the heat danger, stay indoors as much as possible, hugging that air conditioner.  Avoid strenuous activity, wear lightweight, light colored clothing. Avoid booze and caffeine, as they dehydrate the body.  Drink lots & lots of water.

Sports drinks are ok for a once one-jug drink to help replenish your electrolytes, but the body absorbs water much more quickly.  This being due to the fact that sports drinks are so loaded with minerals that the body misidentifies the juice as food and waits for it to be digested before sending it on to the lower innards to be absorbed into the body.

Drink.  Drink even if you don’t thirsty.  If you are thirsty, you are already dehydrated.

And to get down and earthy with the subject, as I can’t think of any other way to express this, if your urine is clear and there is a lot of it, you are properly hydrated, if this is not the case – it’s dark or there is none being produced.  You are in serious danger.

Dehydration has been found to compromise mental function by dropping our brainpower by 25%.  Which helps keeps you from thinking straight & doing the smart things that help keep you above the daisies.

So stay cool, wear a hat and keep hydrated.

Sermon concluded.

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Mark’s Almanac

August was originally named “Sextilis”, the sixth Roman month. It was renamed August in honor of Caesar Augustus & was lengthened to 31 days, to equal Julius Caesars month of July.

August is hot and humid & summer temperatures remain at or near their summer peak.

The rapid vegetation growth of spring is over, and, since conditions are now perfect for the growth of mold, fungi & germs, plants have a “used” look, which is enhanced if rainfall is scarce.

Towards the end of the month the big Yellow Sulphur Butterflies will begin heading to the South-Southeast, giving hints of their soon upcoming fall migration & cats will begin to hint of growing their winter coats.

Though the Hurricane season has been a fairly dead year so far, don’t discount the late starting seasons or “first letter storms” ferocity.  Just think of Hurricanes Andrew in 1992, Betsy in 1965 and Camille in 1969.

Hurricane breeding grounds in August are the Atlantic, with Low Latitude storms forming off of Africa crossing the Ocean and either threatening the Eastern Seaboard or striking the Leeward Islands, entering the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast.  Breeding grounds also include the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

21% of a year’s Hurricanes occur in August.  85 to 95% of land falling Hurricanes have not occurred by August 15.

The Perseid Meteor Shower peaks on August 12, with 50 to 60 meteors per hour (if you can get away from city lights).

August’s full moon is “Fruit Moon” in Cherokee Folklore & “Women’s Moon” among the Choctaw.

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When you get a chance, “talk up ALERT”.  Let people know who we are, what we do & why they should be involved.  For YOU are the best recruitment tool we have.

This month’s meeting will be on August 10 at 7PM at the National Weather Service

Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

I hope to see you there.

Mark / WD4NYL

President

ALERT

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

Hi everyone & welcome to your ALERT Newsletter.
I hope everyone had a good Fourth of July & that you enjoyed the fireworks over Red Mountain.
As I started thinking about an article for this month’s newsletter the subject of nets and net operations came to mind. I’ve always had a deep interest in Ham nets, both on VHF and HF.
My first exposure to Ham Radio was listening to the old Alabama Emergency Net X-ray on 146.940.  I vividly remember the night of “The Day Of 100 Tornadoes” back in April of 1974, as wave after wave of storms passed through.  I remember the power going out at the house just as the NCS began shouting, “someone kill the autopatch”, which had activated itself just as the line hit, jamming the desperate reports that were flooding in, adding to the drama & chaos of the night.
One of the first things I did as a new ham was become active in the 3.965 Net.  In the course of time I was an NCS on the AENX now the Jefferson County Emergency Net, the AENN now the Shelby County Net, the AENB now the Alabama Section Net fast speed CW Net and the now defunct AEND slow speed CW traffic Net, of which I was also Net Manager.
Nets are interesting creatures.  They are one of the best ways to learn and meet the ham community.If you are shy about rag chewing, they give you a chance to “ham it up”.  They also give you an excuse to blow the dust off the radio and remind everyone that you are still in the Land O’ The Living.
Wild and weird things happen on nets.  I remember an SOS in perfect CW, with callsign, being superimposed on the NCS’s signal one night & the hams responding to the distress call, calling 911 and the paramedics finding the address given being an empty field.
Weather Nets generate interesting critiques.  A vocal few, will get loud and testy that the net has been brought up when their neighborhood is not “under the gun”, and then same dummies will get equally testy that the net isn’t up when a faint peal of thunder from the Mother of All Zephyrs is heard in their nook of the world.
Mostly though, nets are fun.
So be sure to check into our local nets:
BARC Sunday Night Net                       Sunday at 7PM      146.880    Shelby County ARES Net                     Tuesday at 8PM    146.980D-Star Net                                              Tuesday at 7:30     145.410Jefferson County Emergency Net       Tuesday at 9PM    146.880
When you check in, you might also consider taking the next step & try your hand at being a Net Control Station.  There is no better training for emergency net operations than to being an NCS on our local nets.
As an NCS you learn the ebb and flow of nets and net operations. You learn how to handle marginal signal and as you learn the ham community sometimes you will know who is checking in just by the voice or signal quirks and characteristics.   Your ears become trained to pull the signal out.

Someday that can become very important.  “I’m seeing a tornado on the ground at Lakeshore and Highway 280.  This is WD4fttttttttttttttttttttt.”  Though the signal has dumped, you know who it is by the voice and know it’s that crazy old coot that runs the Sunday Night Net.
“Oh I might mess up!” you might say.
Well, in thirty years of doing nets there isn’t a way to mess up a net that I have tried or invented, from dogs howling in the background, calling the net on the wrong repeater & calling it on the wrong night.I dumped ice water in my lap during the preamble one night, and I never missed a word.  True, my voice raised a few octaves in pitch, but still I never missed a word.
So don’t be shy about jumping in.   When Hub N4HUB, Tom W4TCA or I ask for volunteers on our nets, we aren’t asking for politeness sake.  We are actually looking for some willing souls to pitch in.
So when you hear us asking for volunteers, you go for it!
I double dirty dog dare you to….;-)
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Mark’s Almanac
Originally called “Quintilis”, the fifth Roman month, Quintilis was renamed “July” in 44 BC in honor of Julius Caesar.
July is miserably hot, as land temperatures reach their peaks in late July through early August – the Dog Days of Summer.  The last week of July is usually the hottest week of the year.  Tropical conditions are dominant, with conditions similar to that of the Amazon Valley.
This is the time to test the “Brown Grass Theory”.  According to the theory, if the grass remains green the temperature will probably not reach 100, but, if the grass turns brown, get set for triple digits.  This is a local Birmingham rule, which I learned from the Old Timers at the Birmingham NWS way back when they were on Oxmoor Road.
Tornado activity drops sharply, with a 47% decrease nationwide.  July has an average of 103 tornadoes.
July Hurricane activity normally increases, but major hurricanes are not yet frequent.  By months end, one hurricane will have occurred.  Seven percent of a year’s hurricane total occurs in July.
Long track hurricanes are possible, forming off the African coast and crossing the Atlantic, either to threaten the US East Coast, then eventually veering off towards Bermuda. Or in the case of “Low Latitude” storms, cross the Atlantic, strike the Leeward Islands; enter the Caribbean and then striking the Yucatan, or the Western or Northern Gulf coast.
July’s Full Moon is “Buck Moon” in Native American folklore.
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I’m still looking for some articles for the newsletter.
Send me some items.  After all, you never know when those Pulitzer Committee folk will be reading.
This month’s meeting will be on July 13 at 7PM at the National Weather ServiceForecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

I hope to see you there.
Mark
WD4NYL
President
ALERT

www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/

June has arrived & with its arrival begins the North Atlantic Hurricane Season, which will last until the end of November.

Hurricane season predictions are an inexact science, but most soothsayers are saying, that due to El Nino fading away, we will have a severe tropical season.  How severe depends on whom you ask.

NOAA is predicting 23 named systems, with 8 to 14 hurricanes, 3 to 7 of which will be major.

Dr. William Gray & Phillip Klotzbach of Colorado State predicts 18 named systems, with 10 hurricanes, four of which will be major.

Florida State has issued the news that they believe there is an 89% chance of the US being hit by a hurricane that would “cause property damage”.

Personally I predict a 100% chance of hurricane related property damage either wind or water related within a 150 mile radius of landfall, with the greater damage potential occurring on the right side of the storm path, especially if at high tide, on a bay and it being on a full moon, going with the operating assumption that a storm actually forms and that it actually makes landfall on the continental US…

Ok. There you go.  Now where’s my grant money and my “free government <censored>”???

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Hurricane Impact & Hurricane Response

Alabama is impacted by hurricanes in three ways:

1. Direct Impact – Where the core of the storm or the rain / wind field actually strikes or passes through a portion of Alabama.  Examples being Hurricane’s Fredrick, Opal, Ivan or Katrina.
2. Indirect Impact – where the core is not over Alabama, but the feeder bands are passing through and causing havoc.  Rita’s feeder band being a good example, which dropped 20

tornadoes over west Alabama in a 4 hour period.  I was NCS on 88 as Tuscaloosa County

was hit by 10 tornadoes. Some on the ground simultaneously, north and south in the county, during this – the second largest one day tornado outbreak on record.

1. Distant Impact – A storm is not even near Alabama, but, affecting our weather.  Such as with Olivia, a Pacific Hurricane which was off Western Mexico.  Her moisture was captured by the jet stream, crossed the Sonora desert, the Arklatex region & dumped monsoon type rains on Alabama & Mississippi, causing flooding.

ALERT typically will activate during scenarios 1 & 2.  Most of our activity when the storm is near the coast normally has been on HF at 3.965 or the backup 40 meter frequency of 7.225.  However, since we currently are without HF capability and with the ever improving coverage on D-Star, ALERT’s coverage would concentrate on monitoring D-Star directly and HF using a liaison station monitoring HF offsite.

Then as the storm moves northward into the BMX County Warning Area the focus would then shift to the individual county Skywarn Nets, as we would do during a “normal” callout.

HF Gulf Coast Nets to monitor are:

Primary State ARES Frequencies & Nets for Gulf of Mexico & regular meeting times.

3.965 MHz       Alabama Emergency Net Mike                 4:00 PM Sunday

3.940 MHz       Florida Amateur Single Sideband Net     6:00 PM

3.975 MHz       Georgia Single Sideband Net                   7:30 PM

3.910 MHz       Louisiana Traffic Net                                 6:30 PM

3.862 MHz       Mississippi Section Phone Net                 6:00 PM

3.873 MHz       Texas Traffic Net                                       6:30 PM

Wide Coverage Nets

14.235 MHz       Hurricane Watch Net                               As Needed

3.935 MHz       Central Gulf Coast Hurricane Net          1:00 UTC

The Hurricane Watch Net is only activated when a storm is within 300 miles of a populated land mass.  This net is one where you don’t check in to, only listen.  Only if you have a legitimate need to check in do you do so – emergency/priority traffic or if the NCS specifically calls for a station in Central Alabama, only then should you pick the microphone up.  Or, if they do actually give a call for general checkins.

Some Internet resources you should have in your armory include:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ – The National Hurricane Center out of Coral Gables, FL

http://www.hurricane.alabama.gov/ – The Alabama Hurricane Center has loads of links for

when a storm visits our well oiled beaches.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ Hurricane Forecast Models

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Satellite imagery and data – worldwide

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html Storm centered satellite imagery

Many other resources, including coastal radar picket, Caribbean & Mexican radar,

charts and satellite imagery can be found at www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/ and

clicking on “Tropics, Charts & Satellites”.

This is my own website, which I am shamelessly hawking.   I created it so I could access weather resources at K4NWS and offsite.

At 4600 plus hits (4550 of which are mine) it can’t be too wrong.

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Mark’s Almanac

Originally the fourth Roman Month, June at one time had 29 days, until Julius Caesar in a glow of inspiration added the 30^th day.

What June was named for is uncertain.  Some say it was named for Juno, wife & sister of Jupiter.

Storm activity retains many of the characteristics of spring, but more and more the pattern takes on the summer pattern of pop-up thunderstorms.

Hurricane season begins, however June hurricanes are usually small and of minor intensity, occurring roughly once every two years.

The centers for June Tropical Cyclone activity are the extreme Western Caribbean, with the storm tracks striking the Yucatan or veering toward Western Florida & the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with the storm tracks aiming toward the Mexican mainland.

The center of maximum tornadic activity shifts northward over Kansas and Iowa.  Activity in Texas and Oklahoma dies down. There is a 5% decrease in tornadic activity over the May average & by June fourth 50% of the years tornadoes have occurred.

So far, as of June 2, 544 tornadoes have been reported, 24 of which occurred in Alabama.

Summer Solstice will occur at 11:28 UTC on June 21.

June’s Full Moon is “Strawberry Moon” in Native American folklore.

Remember June 25^th and mark it on your calendar & on that date remember Christmas, for this is what Christmas day feels like in Northern Australia.

Now for the most important Nugget O’ Knowledge that you will get from this newsletter. In June ducks loose all their flight feathers at once and are incapable of flying.

Now aren’t you glad to know that?

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This month’s meeting will be on June 8 at 7PM at the National Weather Service

Forecast office at the Shelby County Airport.

Hope to see you there!

Mark / WD4NYL
President
ALERT
www.freewebs.com/weatherlynx/